Extreme weather has dominated the news this summer, with reports of massive wildfires in Canada. Dangerous flooding in India, Japan and eastern United States. Severe heat waves in Spain, China, US and Mexico. and the hottest day ever recorded on Earth. Recent research conducted by scientists at the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute (BAERI) and the NASA Ames Research Center shows how these extreme events are exacerbated as global temperatures rise, and how these phenomena may change over time. A thorough investigation is provided as to where they are more likely to collide or join. In ways that have a profound impact on people’s lives and livelihoods.
Your work will be published in a magazine the future of the earth. This study uses publicly available NASA datasets. NASA Earth eXchange — Global Daily Shrink Forecast (NEX-GDDP) can “scale” the expected changes on a regional scale, so any community in the world can start preparing today.
The study explored a world with warming of more than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times. It focused on geographic patterns of projected changes in key climatic variables such as changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed. Two degrees of warming is widely considered to be the critical threshold above which the planet will witness dangerous cascading effects of human-induced climate change. Studies show that 2 degrees of warming is expected sometime in the 2040s, although projections from different climate models vary.
Climate variables do not work in isolation. “We wanted to study how these individual climate variables are projected to change, and how their combinations affect people around the world. Changes can compound the effects of different variables, and we need to look at them together to understand the real situation.”Impact on human life,” says the BAERI researcher, lead of the paper. Author Taejin Park said.
The researchers paid special attention to two climate impact indicators. The first is heat stress, the effect of temperature and humidity on the human body. They found that while most regions of the world will experience higher heat stress in the 2040s compared to the 1950-1979 baseline, equatorial countries will suffer more due to an increase in the number of days considered extreme ( For example, each country will have an additional month of extreme heat stress days). in East Africa).
The study also investigated another climate impact indicator, fire weather. It showed a global increase in extreme fire weather, measured by combining variables such as temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind into the Fire Weather Index (FWI). The researchers noted an anomalous increase in fire weather in the Amazon (+4.3 FWI), Midwestern North America (+3.3 FWI) and Mediterranean (+3.7 FWI). Ramakrishna Nemani, Senior Fellow at BAERI and co-author of the study, said: “As all the extreme climate impacts studied expand, they will have significant impacts on local communities and economies through fires, floods, landslides and crop failures. It can cause damage,” he said. Floods and droughts in particular are likely to be “more frequent, more intense, longer, or all three.”
Use big data to create unique climate insights
The NEX-GDDP dataset used in this study provides global daily climate projections to 2100. To create this dataset, the team took projections produced by the world’s leading climate models and used advanced statistical techniques to “downscale” them. Spatial resolution is significantly improved. Raw climate model projections provide global daily results for an area approximately 120 by 120 miles (200 by 200 kilometers).
The NEX-GDDP dataset is scaled to approximately 15 x 15 miles (25 x 25 kilometers). This resolution will help leaders develop targeted climate adaptation and mitigation plans. The downscaling process often consolidates daily forecasts into monthly averages, but maintaining daily data is important to capture extreme events. When aggregated into monthly averages, several days of predicted dangerously hot and humid weather could be buried in the numbers, masking the risk to human life, Park said.
The study’s conclusions indicate an urgent need for decision makers to understand the compounding climate impacts projected for their region. The unique regional scale of NEX-GDDP data helps local leaders develop climate adaptation and mitigation plans specific to their communities.
“Data is only valuable if it guides action. The true value of NEX-GDDP lies in its potential to drive positive change on a meaningful scale around the world,” said NEX-GDDP data development. Lead and collaborator Bridget Thrasher said: Study author.
The team is passionate about making data accessible to global communities and local decision makers to create positive change in the real world. What you can do from today Download the study’s fire weather data here—Heat stress and other indicators will be available soon—and the authors are now working to incorporate all the data from the study into NASA’s interactive Earth Information Center.
For more information:
Taejin Park et al., “What will global land climates look like with 2°C warming?” the future of the earth (2022). DOI: 10.1029/2022EF003330
Provided by: Bay Area Environmental Research Institute
Quote: Climate projections detail future risks for many people around the world (10 August 2023), retrieved on 11 August 2023
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